Key Takeaways
- Bloomberg analysts raised approval odds for spot crypto ETFs like XRP, Solana, and Litecoin to 90% or higher.
- SEC’s positive engagement signals likely approval for multiple new spot crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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XRP has moved into the top tier of ETF approval prospects, next to Litecoin and Solana, as industry experts now see a 95% chance that the SEC will authorize a spot ETF tied to the fourth-largest crypto asset.
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have lifted their approval odds for multiple spot crypto ETFs to 90% or above this year due to a growing dialogue between issuers and the SEC.
NEW: @EricBalchunas & I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher. Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion pic.twitter.com/5dh8G8rK6Y
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) June 20, 2025
Spot XRP ETFs, which previously saw an 85% approval likelihood, have gained an extra 10%. Meanwhile, approval odds for prospective funds tied to Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche have also surged to 90%.
Analysts have also given a 60% initial estimate for Canary’s spot SUI ETF.
Outside of the ETFs on Bloomberg’s approval odds board, the SEC is also reviewing a number of crypto investment products, including altcoin-linked ETFs such as TRON and TRUMP, as well as funds that aim to incorporate staking.
According to Seyffart, these funds are off the board due to the lack of a 19b-4 submission, which he believes, however, will come soon.
Litecoin ETFs have long topped approval watchlists, supported in part by the CFTC’s reference to LTC as a commodity in past legal filings. Canary Capital’s proposed Litecoin ETF was among the first to show signs of SEC engagement.
The SEC has recently asked Solana ETF issuers to update their S-1 filings, an indication that potential approvals may be approaching.
While there is growing optimism about potential crypto ETF launches this year, Seyffart noted that the timing of the anticipated approvals is “uncertain.”
“Could be something we’re talking about in the next month or two. Or it could be something that waits until October or later. Matter of when not if,” the analyst said.
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